When a 2,000-seat capacity multiplex was first announced, in March 1999, Trustees expressed the view that the modest 570 capacity of the existing cinema was not inappropriate given the regional context, not least the 3,000 capacity multiplex at the Metro Centre (with free parking), 3,300 at Manors, Newcastle (with adjacent cheap parking) and 2,000 at the Odeon, Newcastle.
Before detailed planning permission had been granted in September 1999, Trustees had substantiated their argument by reference to the complete list of existing and projected competing multiplexes, shown the catchment area analysis to be unrealistic, and claimed the cinema industry was not as buoyant as was being portrayed. Thus, Walkergate would have to compete with several large multiplexes which, during 1998 or 1999, had already been, or were about to be, granted planning permission - Gateshead Quayside (4,100); Pilgrim Street (4,000), Newgate (3,800), Cattlemarket (2,500) and Snow World (3,500), all in Newcastle; Park Lane, Sunderland (3,000); Dalton Flatts, Murton (2,500). [Durham lodged an objection to the last-named, since it would impact on Walkergate.] Meanwhile, Boldon (2,500) was already operational.
Despite knowledge of existing and probable competitors, the application claimed that the Walkergate multiplex would "realistically serve" a catchment area within 20 minutes driving time. Such a claim, however, could be shown to be unrealistic, when it meant, for instance, that the whole of Washington was considered to be within Durham's sphere of influence. Also, the number of potential cinema visits had been calculated by an inflated attendance multiplier viz 4, when 2.45 was the most recent national figure.
Accordingly, we should not have been too surprised that in March 2000 the multiplex operator, Warner Village Cinemas, announcing that there had been a downturn in the commercial leisure industry, demanded a reverse premium of £1.2m to come to Durham. This decidedly less favourable arrangement - from the City's point of view - was agreed to. Then, in December, the operator withdrew entirely from the project.
The reaction of AMEC and the Local Authority was to insist it was 'business as usual', that Warners was only one operator with whom they were dealing and that another was already 'on board'. Confidence, of course, is the lifeblood of developers but no amount will alter the quite specific regional context into which a successful Walkergate will have to fit.